Vastedvoters guide to Indian politics
VastedVoters is as you must have guessed the universe's most acclaimed guide to Indian politics. Much of its popularity is because it makes the General Elections very simple to understand by innovatively dividing them into 3 major parts
1. Pre elections
2. Elections
and heres the surprise
3. Post elections
Pre Elections:
This is the period before the election commission releases the election schedule. About a year before the expected polls the ruling party cures its amnesia and starts to work towards implementing its most populist promises. Like last year we had
1. A one time farm loan waiver of about Rs 600 billion
2. Increasing the threshold limit of exemption from personal tax by 50%
and not as widely noticed but very importantly
3. The customs duty on helicopter simulators was removed. Yeah Helicopter Simulators to train more pilots and make heli travel cheaper. This was supposed to make it easy and cheaper for the politicians to reach their electorate without bothering to build roads.
The earlier 4 years of the tenure are typically spent on rather boring things like scams, creating traffic jams, appointing committees to study issues they don't want to decide on, raising tax rates so that they can be reduced in the 5th year and so on. The action starts 6 months before the anticipated election date. Parties flirt and woo each other with a charm that can parallel NTR's or MGR's in yesteryear movies. Successful suitors get to form ridiculous live in relationships to get through the elections. There are a few fairly locked in relationships purely due to lack of other options to both the parties involved. However the understanding of these relations is still very poor and there is a newly evolving branch of mathematics dedicated to this. The new branch called the poll arithmetic, is yet to find its Aryabhatta and establish how the basic operators like addition and subtraction work in such alliances. So it's still unclear how the tradiional voters of each of the parties in an alliance behave.
Once the alliances are made, there comes a very sophisticated negotiating phase where the leaders of the parties sit with their alliance partners and start negotiations which can put Chennai autowallahs to shame. Unlike the autowallahs however there is not much historical data and is still a very interesting topic of research. The autowallahs, as has been widely publicized, start by quoting a price of 300 to take you to IIT Campus from Chennai Central. A novice would fall into the trap and start negotiating at 20 thereby ending up at the average of 160. Seasoned IITians though have realized that the rate drops exponentially as you go closer towards the bus stand. You walk until the asking price comes to 180 and then start negotiating to go to the targeted 100. (This was in 2004, please adjust for inflation. And did you hear about this guy who tried to negotiate with the auto guy to make a deal at geometric mean instead of arithmetic)
It is widely believed that the best results in politics are also obtained by overstating the seats to be asked by 200%. There are others who strongly dismisses this hypothesis as it is purely based on the well researched and documented pricing strategies of Chennai's auto unions. However some of the most successful party leaders were known to start negotiations at 350 seats as part of the alliance in a legislative assembly with 294 seats. As a counter strategy the negotiated parties in recent times learnt the concepts of negative integers and put it to good use. Somebody did try the geometric mean also and realized that it was much easier to explain the concept to Chennai Autowallahs.
About this time the election commission will be done with a thorough analysis of the security requirements and available personnel and makes detailed schedule of the election. And thus we enter an exciting 2nd part.
2. Elections:
India holds a very unique distinction of having prolonged elections which can last longer than the governments they produce. The polling process needs lots of planning to sort out the colossal logistics and security issues. This year the actual polling is spread over a month in 5 phases across the country.
Once the election schedule is out the parties lose no time to zero in on the arithmetic mean of the proposals from the two sides. Then another round of negotiations starts to sort out which of the seats should go to which party in the alliance. This often gets dirty when both the parties are strong in a particular constituency. There are street fights, burning of effigies and other popular forms of entertainment employed by party cadres. After the nuisance deciding on the constituencies of each party, the parties start a dramatic and often embarrassing episode of choosing the right candidates for each constituency. This process has been highly simplified lately to a single variable, the net worth of the individual. The higher the net worth the more suitable the candidate is purely because of his ideology. This will quite inadvertently ensure there is enough money for the campaign, beer, biryani etc. Some more sophisticated parties found ebay an excellent tool to sell their tickets on auction and maximize the party funds.
Unlike most other spheres of life, discipline is quite a liability in Indian politics and it often goes unrewarded. Indiscipline on the other hand is very well rewarded and has created many a fortune. So partymen who realize they cannot contest on their party ticket anymore find it an opportune time to rethink their ideals and realize that the other party is a lot more inline with their idealogy and in a swift move change loyalties overnight and get a ticket to contest on. In other cases money changes hands liberally to entertain rebel candidates from opposing parties to stay in the poll fray and split the vote. There are more elaborate and higher order strategies employed with the sincere intention of hurting the prospects of the rivals by throwing money around.
Once the dust settles on the candidate list, the parties start on the campaign trail criss crossing their target constituencies. Road vehicle sales in India have increased by over 10000% in the last year thanks to the popularity of the road shows. Everybody who is somebody took out a road show in the last year. The filmstars are the best roadshow artists because of their obvious appeal to the masses. This has spelt doom for the film industry as the movie production came to stand still as all the stars are on the roads trying to woo the voters. Also this further deteriorated the condition of recession hit Indian workers in USA who depended heavily on Indian movies for entertainment. Lots of Indians devoid of their chief entertainment form were forced to follow the elections for amusement.
The campaign draws to a close a couple of days before polling. And then it starts pouring liquor. There is more liquor available than drinking water in those 2 days. Even money gets distributed to buy votes at a price. The voters get royal treatment which naturally they would love and want to get more often. So I would expect them to love frequent elections. But quite strangely, it is widely believed that voters feel elections are a burden and don't want them frequently. I think its more the thought of urban educated intelligentsia which seldom votes. They'd naturally want their tax money spent on other things. For the rural poor though elections are an awesome time with so much money and wine circulating in the rural economy.
After 2 days of drowning in liquor, the polling happens. Responsible citizens go cast their vote. Some lured by their favorites actors, some by the money, some by the wine and yet quite some purely by a belief in the World's largest democracy. Let us give some thought to the scale of this exercise. Here are some interesting stats
1. 700 million voters. Thats more voters than North America and South America combined
2. The largest parliament constituency Ladakh is 173266 sq. km in size. The smallest Chandni Chowk is 10.6 sq km
3. 828,000 polling stations across the country including the high himalayas, the deserts of Rajasthan and the dense Gir forests which has only one registered voter.
4. 6.5 million poll personnel. A million more than Denmark's population.
5. Elephants, mules, Yaks, camels are some of the animals which are get to be part of this grand spectacle ( on the left its an elephant carrying the electronic voting machine)
6. Rs 11.2 billion is the expected cost. A paltry Rs 10(2o cents) per head in a country of a billion.
Post Elections:
This is the time between close of polling and proving the majority in the house. It is the shortest and what is going to be the most exciting phase of these elections. Heavy trading happens during this time with MP's commanding prices that can make many a Harvard MBA grad rethink his/her career strategy.
There are three major blocks in Indian Politics
United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
Natioanl Democratic Alliance (NDA)
and
The Third Front
UPA:
Congress is the permanent member and the central part of this block. Congress is probably the only party in India that has stuck to the principles of its formation. Back in 1885, Congress was formed by some intelligent British dudes to pacify the Indians and keep them from rebelling against the exploiting rulers (who were British). They have amazingly stuck to the task only they have replaced the British with themselves as the exploiting rulers. And still mostly British educated or lately American educated. Congress is more a religion than a political party. the leaders are born in the right families not made. All Congress party members believe that all Gandhi family members including their foreign wives and mistresses (or husbands and whatevers) are avatars of God and should lead India forever. If they have their way the Congressmen would love to make the young girl in the pic, Priyanka Gandhi's daughter, the Prime Minister of the country tomorrow. They don't have any fixed economic principles and are quite flexible to work with anyone as long as they accept the supremacy of the Gandhi family.
National Democratic Alliance:
This is a BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) centric block. They got popular by raising the slogans of Hindutva and reminding the majority Hindus of the attrocities performed against them and their religion by the non Hindu rulers. Shiv Sena is only other permanent member actually amuses itself on Valentine's day by marrying off lovers seen together. They also burn down enterprising gift shops. They are against westernisation of the culture and so don't approve celebrating the New Year's day also. Some of their other dubious sister associations indulge in more severe cultural intolerance and moral policing. While officially BJP does claim secularism, they tend to turn a blind eye on the moral police and give them a free reign. Natuarally most of their leaders are made in India and attended Indian schools and colleges. Economically they are a little right leaning. Relatively more reform and privatization friendly.
Third Front: Third Front is tricky. There are no permanent members here. Indeed it is largely believed to be a figment of imagination of doped communists. Communists have a presence in 3 of the 28 states and dream of ruling the country one day. They even claim they are an alternative to the other 2 fronts. There is no common agenda other than keeping the other 2 fronts away from power. The parties in here can be divided into 2 large categories. One, opportune parties which find it an excellent spot to park themselves and wait to see which of the other two fronts end up stronger and gravitate towards it at the right moment. And two, parties headed by people who aspire to be the next prime minister.
So once the results are out, the stronger alliance will be an obvious choice for most of the fence sitters in the third front. Historically we did have times when the Third front stayed united and forced one of the other 2 fronts to back them to form the government. But it would be increasingly difficult because the parties now are all so regional with almost no opinion on national issues. Most of them got through their campaigns without even mentioning the popular nuclear deal.
The large parties woo the smaller ones with promises of giving them almost everything they ask for, often at the cost of their own principles. Well atleast at the cost of the lesser important principles, power being the most important principle for all. The smaller parties for their part try to make the most of this time and demand the moon. Jayalalitha's AIADMK and Mulayam's SP have already offered to support any govt in the center that will dismiss the state govt's in Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh respectively. The parties which cannot form a government on their own in their states will be open for negotiations with almost everyone. The only unlikely combination are 'Congress and BJP' and 'Left and BJP'. With the boogie of nonsecular BJP, the Congress and Left will invariably find common ground and get together. Congress has been and will continue to for another 50 years, seek votes purely for being more secular with no economic contribution.
And so I wait eagerly for May 16 when the EVM's reveal what the Indian voter wants. And then we'll have the action packed climax with parties changing sides and candidates changing parties. And the drama unfolds to establish the next king/queen of Delhi.



